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Thursday, July 30, 2009

Birds and money

Odd ducks and black swans signify unusual financial events in the jargon of the business. Black swans are the focus right now. Not seeing a black swan doesn't mean they don't exist but seeing one categorically proves that not all swans are white. Financial markets don't always behave rationally and major upheavals are characterized as black swan events. The best known "black swan" event was the crash of '29. We've had others. Russia defaulting on 540 million dollars worth of bonds ruined at least one hedge fund which had an otherwise solid plan. So, what does this have to do with todays situation? I'm guessing but I think we are in for a black swan event. Specifically, I think we may be looking at a HUGE deflation when our Washing gang decides that it's cheaper to go cash and carry than continue to service an unwieldy debt. When we pay more in taxes than we get in governmental goods and services because of interest, we have a politically unworkable situation. The only thing that could be cut is the interest and the way to do that is debt repudiation. WHICH causes another problem. Our money, which is based on someone going into debt to create it, will vanish, unless you have the physical cash in an envelope stuffed under a mattress. That will mean prices crash but you still have to come up with the dollars to pay mortgages and other debts. That will be hard if no one has enough dollars. You will probably lose your house as a result. What about gold? What will happen there? The price would drop precipitously but it won't get to zero. You'll still be able to buy food and stuff but we may be looking at $20 / ounce gold again. You have some value but not enough to pay the mortgage. Once again, the banksters win and get the property. Personally, I think they (the Washington banksters) will do anything to win and don't care who else gets hurt. So, if you have gold and silver, you may want to sock some cash away as well, just in case.