Thursday, January 5, 2012
Chicken markets
Years ago (many years ago), I read a book that talked about bull markets, bear markets and chicken markets. What intrigued me was the term "chicken" market. The author defined the term as a "market where no one knows what's going on" or something to that effect. I suspect we are in a major chicken market right now. Currencies are destabilizing because the effect of creating money from nothing is starting to have repercussions (I guess the "chickens" are coming home to roost). The US stock markets finished the year basically flat. Many other markets lost ground and interest rates are low around the world which discourages investment plus where the interest rates are high enough for a good investment, the risks is much too high. Therefore, no capital is being invested and the central banks are issuing more currency to keep liquidity up which steals value from the people holding cash. What a mess. Governments in Europe are in a panic that the Euro may fail (the Fed is nearly in a panic that the US Dollar may fail) and whoever wins the war between the dollar and the euro is bound to show deflationary pressures as banks rush to the winner as the reserve currency which allows them to float loans created from thin air. Don't forget that China and Japan have agreed to accept each other's currency instead of settling accounts in dollars. Wow. Sophisticated (read "disillusioned") traders and investors understand that the game of musical currencies is played much the same was as musical chairs. If you don't move fast enough, you get left holding the bag of worthless currencies. My new rule is, "Buy stuff!" What stuff? Any stuff that people will need when they can only afford necessities. Next post.
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