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Sunday, January 22, 2012

Gold as a hedge against inflation

It seems smart money keeps trying to demonetize gold or run it down as a hedge against inflation. Keynesian bankers don't want gold to be a monetary metal because it keeps them from inflating currency and getting the benefit of the purchasing power of the currency without having to actually work for the money. (As an aside, the purchasing power they get is STOLEN from you. But that's another story.) Checking the Consumer Price Index (the calculation of which is constantly restructured to keep US government liabilities from increasing too fast) indicates that from 1913 (the formation of the Federal Reserve System) to 2011, the price of something that was $ 1.00 in 1913 now costs $ 22.72 which is an inflation rate of 3.24% (roughly). That means, if gold has no real value other than as a commodity, the price of gold should have risen from $ 20.67 to $ 469.24 if only to cover inflation. Well, we all know the price of gold is now $ 1,667.00 which is an investment rate of return of 4.58%. BUT, don't forget that for the years from 1913 to the gold confiscation by FDR in 1933 (20 years for the mathematically challenged among you) the price of gold didn't change AT ALL! After the deadline, FDR raised the price of gold to $ 35.00 and basically stole that value from US citizens. My how the powerful play! Well that means the real investment period should be from 1932 to 2011 and the rate of increase in value of gold in the same period is 5.715%. So, the conclusion is, if the CPI is correct, gold really clobbers inflation. If the increase of the gold price indicates the true inflation rate (which I believe is actually a bit low because of market manipulations), then the US government is not being honest about its contractual obligations. What do you think?

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